So the AFL and NRL home and away seasons have come to an end, and like many my success rate in the office tipping competitions has not been as good as it used to be even just half a decade ago! However my betting performance has improved over that time.

On the surface that doesn't make sense! After all when one spends so much time analysing sport, which I do for a living, one would think my footy tipping would improve, not worsen.

What I have realised is that as I have become better at punting, that my performance in the various footy (both AFL and NRL) tipping comps has suffered as a result.

There are three main reasons I believe for this:

1.    My main focus is betting these days, with my tips now usually being an afterthought.
2.    The thought process between tipping and betting are completely different, and thinking like a better does hinders ones tipping thought process.
3.    I do believe the AFL and NRL has become more even and a lot less predictable than years gone past.


Let’s delve into the second point, and why tipping and betting are completely different thought processes.

 

This may sound overly simplistic, but when tipping all you really are concerned about is who is more likely to win.


In any random round you will probably find that about 5 out of the 8 matches most people will have identical tips – i.e. the obvious fairly one sided matches. Therefore the real difference on the office tipping competitions is derived from those other three matches where there is not too much separating the sides.

Betting however requires a completely different mindset. You are looking for value, not just who is a greater chance of winning.

In fact if you just bet on those same 5 certainty tips that everyone selects in the office tipping then I can almost guarantee that you will lose out long term on the punt! The reason being that those 5 teams are often very poor value to bet on.


Anyway, I decided to take a good hard look at my tipping in both the AFL and NRL this year – and it has become painfully clear that I have been letting my betting thoughts influence my tips.

For example, say I rated the home team a 60% chance to win with the away team a 40% chance. However the odds for the away team are $2.80; which is greater value than what I rate them (40% equates to a $2.50 chance). So I back the away side.

Then I have noticed I have often tipped the away team as well – which is wrong because I actually think the home team has the better chance of winning!

The take home point of this post is that tipping and betting are completely different kettle of fish. Coming up in the next week or two I will delve deeper into the all important aspect of betting - finding value.