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I'm Phil and Astute Betting was intended to be the home for my thoughts and ideas on betting. I am no longer active on this site, however I have left some of the more popular articles up on this site. I can be contacted via the Ask Phil page.  

Top 11 Betting Mistakes

There are a number of elementary mistakes than seem to be consistently repeated by countless in the betting world. Here are the eleven most common ones:

Inconsistent betting stakes

Is your betting all over the place? Are you betting $5 in one event and then $500 on the next.
If so, your betting is out of control.
The fact is you should be betting within a certain stake range, and there are very few reasons to step outside it.

Not getting the best or at least very close to the best odds available.

Pretty simple, but if you are only using the one bookmaker with uncompetitive odds then over time you are losing out.

Not getting proper value.

Say you rate something a team an 80% chance of winning, and you look around and the best odds you can find is $1.20. Many will place that bet – but you shouldn’t. The fair price is $1.25, anything less and you are being ripped off. Find a better price and you are laughing. Shortly we will add a feature to show you how to calculate the correct value.

Over betting on favourites.

It only human nature to back favourites. However as a general rule often there is little value in the favourites – the bookies make a large percentage of their profits by laying favourites.
You have the courage to back your judgement to find the upsets from time to time.

Falling in love with betting on a particular team, player or horse.

Often we win on a certain team, especially if we win big; we tend to look towards backing them over and over again. For example I had a number of successful bets of Juan del Potro (tennis) back in his early days when he was ranked around 100. As he started shooting up the ranking I felt very proud that I picked him to be a star before most.  Only problem is that I started to overrate him and back him in too many matches – often when he was unlikely to win or poor value.

Betting on events you know little about.

Betting on martial arts when you have never seen a fight? Be honest with yourself – if you have little knowledge on what you’re betting on your heading for trouble!

Blindly following tips without understanding the reasoning behind them.

We all get hot tips. Do you know the reason behind the tip? Why was it given to you?
I have given out plenty of tips in the Winning Post and other places every week, but with each I generally provide a rationale which I consider to be far more important. Look at the rationale behind the tips, if you don’t agree with the rationale don’t follow the tip.

Lack of discipline and patience.

The most successful punters generally have a strategy or guidelines on how they go about their betting. At the very least you should have a rough idea of what you can or won’t bet on.
But far too often I have seen people blow it all away by placing large bets at the last minute on a whim. This can be very dangerous!   
Don’t become overconfident if you get on a winning streak, plus on the flip side don’t go chasing your losses!

Over indulgence in Multi’s.

Probably one of the biggest mistakes out there – as it’s not an obvious one.
People love multi’s because the rewards are big – but so too are the risks.
Don’t get too greedy!
I will have an in depth look at this in an upcoming article, stay tuned.

Not keeping a record of betting performance or looking at it through rose coloured glasses.

Few punters go back and look at their betting results. Many might have a rough idea of how they are doing, but if you take a look at the figures you might be shocked to discover you’re not doing as well as you think you are. You can look through your history with most online bookies; make sure you look at it! Even better - open and maintain an excel file to track all of your bets!

Not learning from your mistakes!

We all make mistakes from time to time.
You most learn from them. Don’t be a fool and repeat the same mistake over and over!